Hand analysis...

I posted this hand analysis at a more "beginner" poker board today, so sorry if some of the stuff seems obvious, but I like walking through this hand and talking it out:


http://www.pokerhand.org/?1173914

Bodog History for Hand #759635334
Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007-06-14 8:29:12
Table 'Poppy Hills' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: hugepot ($91.19)
Seat 2: gobsmacked1 ($25.00)
Seat 3: nyyankeefan1021 ($12.75)
Seat 4: coachwcc ($63.07)
Seat 5: Narez ($51.35)
Seat 6: amypoker ($25.65)
------------------------------
NEW HAND
amypoker: posts the small blind $0.10
hugepot: posts the big blind $0.25
--- DEALING POCKETS
gobsmacked1 is dealt [9d,9h]
gobsmacked1: raises $0.65 to $0.90
nyyankeefan1021: folds
coachwcc: calls $0.90
Narez: calls $0.90
amypoker: folds
hugepot: folds
--- DEALING FLOP [6s,9c,7c]
gobsmacked1: bets $1.95
coachwcc: calls $1.95
Narez: folds
--- DEALING TURN [Js]
gobsmacked1: bets $4.10
coachwcc: calls $4.10
--- DEALING RIVER [Kd]
gobsmacked1: checks
coachwcc: bets $7.00
gobsmacked1: calls $7.00
coachwcc: shows [5c 4d], High Card, King
gobsmacked1: shows [9d,9h], Three of a Kind, Nines
Hand 759635334:
gobsmacked1: wins($27.70)
with Three of a Kind, Nines

Here's a hand from today's morning session that I liked how I played.

I'm UTG 6-max and raise 99. Pretty standard. Some people limp 99 here because it's hard to play OOP and you're going to miss most flops and have overcards as well so it's a tough hand to play and they want to see a flop cheap. I hate limping so I don't do that here. But if you DO limp 99 UTG you HAVE to limp AA, KK, QQ as well because if you always raise your big pairs UTG and always limp 99-22 you become very easy to read!

So the flop is great, I hit top set. But I'm not going to slowplay or check here, I'm going to bet out. I do that for a few reasons. One, the board has obvious straight and flush draws. It's a dangerous board, so I'm not giving any free cards. Two, I'd even bet if the flop was 9-5-2 rainbow because I'm also going to bet that flop when I have AK and have completely missed. So if I slowplay here with a big hand and bet out when I miss I become easy to read. Therefore I have to bet my big hands as well as my missed hands. Third, slowplaying doesn't put any money in the pot and something I always see people do is slowplay a huge hand on the flop, not get any money in the pot, and then on the river they're not really winning much money because they didn't bet big on the earlier streets, scared of scaring people off. So what if they fold sometimes, you have to bet your big hands or else it's hard to bet your missed hands with any credibility. Your opponents need to know you could have anything.

So I bet the flop with the second nuts and get called. What could he have? These guys will call raises with a LOT of hands at this level, so I could be looking at anything from a club draw to 5-4 to any hand with an 8 in it to two pair hands like 9-7 or even a hand like 66 or 77. I don't think he has 10-10 or JJ or QQ type of hands because he'd raise here to protect them. So I think he has a weak pair, two pair, draw, or maybe even a set. A draw is most likely.

The turn doesn't hit any draws. The clubs missed, and if he had 8-T he already had me on the flop. No reason to think I'm not still ahead, and no reason to slow down, so I fire another bet. He calls. No reason to change my view of what his hand was on the flop. Club draws and straight draws seem likely.

The river misses those draws. I check. Why? Because if I bet into a missed draw, he'll just fold and I won't make any money. If I check to him, he's likely to see that as weakness and try to take the pot away with a big bet. If he had 8-10 so be it. He may have even had a hand like AKcc and have hit top pair on the river and think it's good. I check to him, he bets, and I call. I'm not going to raise, because if I raised a missed draw all in he's just going to fold anyways, and a few hands beat me. (JJ and KK, though they're unlikely) He had 5-4 for a missed draw, and I scoop the pot. I made him pay on the flop and turn, and let him bluff into me on the river. Love this hand.

Pete