I was thinking about some stuff after my latest session this morning, and thought I'd try and put my thoughts into words.
I think I'm on the cusp of being a very good poker player, at least at relatively small stakes cash. My goals right now are not super high. Within a year I'd like to be a solid winner at 100NL 6-max. That would really provide my wife and I with some nice additional income and financial stability. I don't have dreams of turning pro or only doing poker for a living. I just want to make some significant money. Right now at 25NL it's nice to make money and sure better than losing it, but it's still not where I want to be even 6 months from now. I know I am better than this level and I have the tools, skills, and ability to win at higher levels.
One thing that's hurting me right now is that one bad hand a session or one bad hand an hour. You can play so well for an hour long session, let's say, but if you royally mess up that one hand it really drags down what your winrate should be. There is already so much variance and your edge can be so slight sometimes that giving away money in stupid hands just kills you. I'd rather lose money aggressively, like getting it in on the flop with a big draw against an overpair and missing, than losing the way I am now...just with a stupid bluff or a stupid call on the river when I can't beat anything.
I find that when I'm playing my worst I am on "autopilot". Phil Galfond, aka Jman aka OMGClayAiken recently wrote the same thing on his CR blog. So I know it's not just me. But I played a hand earlier today so awfully it was amazing, and I don't know if I was on autopilot or when I'm in the moment of a hand I just get caught up with the money in the pot and wanting to always take it that Ido stupid things, but I played it so badly and never even considered my opponent's range of hands.
It's funny how when you really pay attention it's not that hard to narrow down your opponent's range, and you need to do that EVERY TIME you're in a pot or else you'll get blown away by making dumb, mindless plays. Take my earlier hand, for instance:
I'm in the CO and raise AJo to .90 at my 25NL 6-max table on Bodog. The button flat calls, blinds fold. I had played a hand earlier with the button where I raised CO, he smooth called button, I led out with ATo on a raggy flop, he min raised, I folded. This time the flop comes 863 with two hearts (I don't have any hearts) and I check to him. He makes a very small, third-of-the-pot bet. This could mean a lot of things, a draw trying to get there cheap, a monster hand, or just a tester bet with a hand like AQ. But since he took a pot away from me before, I decided I wanted this pot and check raised him 2.5x. He calls. So here I made my first mistakes. Instead of just folding and moving on, or calling for very cheap and keeping the pot small, I raise it with absolutely nothing out of position, putting me in a really tough spot. My raise isn't big enough to drive many hands out of there, either, as even a hand like AK will probably call because of the inviting pot odds.
The turn comes an offsuit 2 and I fire out about 90% of the pot and get called. Okay, so at least I narrowed down his range a bit here. For him to call that bet as well as a flop check raise he has to have a strong made hand or possibly a heart draw, but he wasn't getting good odds on a heart draw so it's probably more likely he has a made hand or maybe even just got there with a hand like 45ss if he plays those types of hands. (I also don't know that, which is another problem)
The river comes an offsuit A giving me top pair solid kicker. Now I'm happy because I have top pair and that I might have just gotten lucky on the river to bail me out after my dumb play. I make another 90% pot bet on the river and he snap calls me with 33 for the flopped set.
The problem here is I didn't even THINK about his possible range of hands on the river. What could possibly pay me off in this spot that calls a flop c/r and a very strong turn bet? The board is 8632A with no suits. If he had a heart draw and missed, he's not paying me off. Checking is the play to induce a bet now that I have a hand with showdown value. He could easily have a hand like A8 and made two pair on the river. He could have 45 or a set. The only reasonable hands that I "get ahead of" on the river are pairs 99-KK, none of which seem all that likely here, and which most likely don't pay off another really strong river bet now with an ace on board. (though on Bodog 25NL I guess it's possible!)
So only the hands I beat fold, and only the hands I lose to call. And this one bad hand turned my session from a small winner to a small loser, and frustrated me because I know for 98% of my sessions I play very well, but I'm letting it slip away in that other 2% of hands.
I mean we're all going to make mistakes, that happens, we can't play perfect all the time, even the best go through that. But if I'm making mistakes I'd rather they be SMALL mistakes like folding a hand that might be the best on the flop or having a guy c-bet me off a pot with nothing when I don't have much either than making BIG mistakes like stacking off weak or making big bets with nothing at a level where I know that' sjust not going to work.
I hope this all makes sense, and maybe you seem something here that applies to your own game. Or maybe it's just me!
GL at the tables,
Pete
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8 comments:
You're thinking too much.
It's 25NL which is a tiny step up from play money. Most of the thought you're putting into your hands is wasted because your opponents aren't putting much if any thought into theirs.
At 25NL the extend of your hand reading is this...will he stack off with TPTK or less? If he will, get yourself in a situation where you beat TPTK and keep betting. Sometimes he'll have a set but mostly not. If he's not going to stack off with crappy hands then just don't lose a big pot without a big pot hand.
In the hand you talk about, just give it up after he calls the check raise--or better yet, before. You don't have a hand; you're not going to make him fold; don't try.
Beating 25NL is easy. It requires less thought than doing your taxes. It just requires the patience to wait for hands and to wait through the inevitable suckouts.
Get hand, bludgeon your opponent. Rinse, repeat, move up.
I like the check raise shit we have to bluff otherwise we dont get action. The key is shutting down when called. I had been leaking so hard this week until tonight. I took a look in the mirror and asked myself why? Why was I doing what I was doing? I just didnt have an answer either. Honestly I am a firm believer at these stakes that unless the perfect bluff card peels off or youu have a read and think your oponent is capable of folding dont fucking bother. I raise, cbet and then shut down if called and quite honestly I think some of my cbets could be withheld. Why are you grinding 25NL? Can you really not roll yourself for 50nl? 25NL is so sick I was fortunate enough to run hotter then a pistol and I jumped up with 10BI because I went through a miserable dry streak with all the sick suckouts. I think something like 10K at 1bb/100.
If you are serious and feel you have skills I say test um. Take a shot. I like that you are hard on yourself though. Take the blame. Figure out how to fix it. Shit I bluffed into quads twice this week. I should be having another sick week but I have been playing just awful till tonight. I murdered it for 600 in 1k hands and am ahead for the week. Honestly I didnt even know I was doing that good I was just grinding with my head down thinking through every decision.
First mistake is not C-betting the flop. If he raises you then just give it up. He might be playing back at you but, eventually, he'll do it at the wrong time.
Second mistake is firing the turn. You made a bluff on the flop. Once it doesn't work, do not put another penny in the pot.
Check-calling the river is the best way to maximise your EV on the river. However, your mistakes earlier on in the hand have compounded and they'll lead to a much bigger mistake in calling a river bet.
I took the stance a few months back (after I was making silly plays/bluffs) that I wouldn't bluff at all for a week. So I didn't. Even when it seemed obvious that a bluff would work. I still made C-bets on the best boards but, other than that, I made no bluffs. And, honestly, you don't need to. I don't think you need to at $100NL so you certainly don't at $25NL. If you're fallinf foul to Fancy Play Syndrome then tell yourself that you WILL NOT bluff for 1 week. And don't. It's no good if you say it and don't stick to it. Try it and see how much better you'll do!
Just to add one thing. I hardly ever double barrel at $100NL. Only when the turn looks like it helped my hand, and I have an opponent who can appreciate this, will I double barrel.
This hand shows why it isn't worth it. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1305660. Ian was sweating me at the time and I said to him that the guy is on 8s or 9s so I'm going to bet again. They just can't fold at these levels. I was tempted to bluff the river again, but I don't even think he'll fold there.
Your money does not come from bluffing at these levels. It comes from extracting value with your made hands.
TY for all the comments guys.
Noel: I have enough to play 50NL with over 20 buy ins, but my money is in transit because I have been getting it off Bodog and it takes forever to get them to mail you a check and then get that money onto Epassporte and then onto another site. But I plan on playing 50NL ASAP. I know I can beat it at a high level.
I'm probably a little too hard on myself but I'm used to beating 25NL for 7+ ptBB/100, so when I'm not I know I'm not playing all that well.
Good comments Ken, I like the point that you make money at this level from extracting value from your made hands. Maybe I will try the no bluffing thing and see how it goes. For all the times when a bluff actually works there are so many when it doesn't so I can't see it being -EV.
TY again for all the comments,
Pete
pgk,
you have attainable goals. I think you'll be able to get to 100 nl he sh in less than a year, depending on how many hands you play a month. How many tables do you play at once?
I use to play 6 tables and played like a rock. It was quite profitable but I didn't improve much. I now play 4 tables and I'm trying to improve my reads so that when i move back up to $200 nl he sh I can beat it. I'm also testing out nl he hu cash games too. It's been interesting so far....
If your goal is to make steady profit, up the tables you play. If you want to improve, play less tables. ABC Tag poker is the best way to grind a steady profit with little variance but takes a lot of discipline. It will be less stressful because you won't be put in many tough situations. It's pretty much tag out of position, lag in position, and bet, bet, bet, and bet fold to raises. Stress free poker but not as fun as playing less tables and trying to pick up reads.
Interesting. I agree with what rasputin and others have said. At the lowest levels the only person you defeat when thinking too much is yourself. It seems sad, since you obviously put a lot of time into improving, that the way to win some of these games is not to think, but it is true.
I can't tell you how many times I've represented hands that thinking players lay down to but called with 2nd pair weak kicker. Sometimes I'll even ask (politely) what my opponent put me on, and the answers have been surprisingly candid: 'wasn't thinking about your hand'...or 'not sure'. I asked one guy 'at what point did you think you were ahead in that hand' and he answered 'never'. So why did you call me all the way down??? The lesson we always need to remember is to not bluff someone who can't lay a hand down.
The point is, at these levels you can't assume people are thinking through hands the same way you are. For the most part, they just aren't. I've been grinding the low levels recently and finally said no more representing hands, no more bluffing, just wait for good hands and stack people. My fear, obviously, is that I won't get paid off, but that's not been the case. People are calling with nothing. I feel silly overbetting the river - like, c'mon, nobody's gonna call here - but they do...regularly. No reason to lose a bog pot with TPTK or just a pair here because you will get paid when your hands come. Promise.
The only thing you need to be wary of is letting this robotic style of play impact you as you move up in levels. While this may work against dopes, you'll get whooped up on in tougher games. Just hand tight. If you're grinding, patience patience patience is the key. You're not going to make it all in one day.
Good luck (except against me)!
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